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Reliability Analysis of Polymer Bonder Explosive Based on Separation between Aleatory Uncertainty and Epistemic Uncertainty
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(1. Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China; 2. Institute of Systems Engineering, CAEP, Mianyang 621999, China)

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    Abstract:

    The uncertainties of model parameters, structural geometry, material property, and external force of the polymer bonder explosive, were quantified with probability box and propagated with nested sampling method in order to separate the different effect of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty on response of interest. Moreover, numerical error and model form error were also quantitatively superposed to acquire the response uncertainty and the reliability interval of the polymer bonder explosive (PBX) structure consequently. In addition, the results of proposed method in this paper were compared with the determinate checking method and the probabilistic reliability method. It is indicated that the reliability assessment with the consideration of uncertainty can reduce the engineering risk than the determinate method. Furthermore, the reliability interval obtained by the proposed method covers the reliability calculated by probabilistic method, and can narrow down to the true reliability as the epistemic uncertainty decreases.

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沈展鹏,臧朝平,陈学前,等.基于随机和认知不确定性分离的PBX构件可靠性分析[J].含能材料,2017,25(4):333-341.
SHEN Zhan-peng, ZANG Chao-ping, CHEN Xue-qian, et al. Reliability Analysis of Polymer Bonder Explosive Based on Separation between Aleatory Uncertainty and Epistemic Uncertainty[J]. Chinese Journal of Energetic Materials,2017,25(4):333-341.

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History
  • Received:October 24,2016
  • Revised:November 25,2016
  • Adopted:January 03,2017
  • Online: April 26,2017
  • Published: April 27,2017