CHINESE JOURNAL OF ENERGETIC MATERIALS
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基于Bootstrap方法的火工品可靠性评估
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温玉全(1965-),男,副教授,从事火工系统设计与可靠性技术研究。e-mail: wyquan@bit.edu.cn

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总装预研基金(51305010303)


Reliability Assessment for Initiating Devices Based on Bootstrap
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    摘要:

    为了在较小样本下较精确地评估火工品的可靠性,研究了升降法试验对火工品感度分布参数估计的影响,提出了应用变差系数的升降法试验方案和相应的刻度参数修正估计,数值模拟表明该估计具有较优的统计性质且受试验方案影响较小。结合升降法试验的特点,给出了基于Bootstrap方法的火工品可靠性评估小样本方法,并通过数值模拟与验证试验和传统的方法进行了比较。采用此方法评估可靠性指标为γ=0.90、R≥0.999的某撞击火帽的可靠性下限为0.99997,此结果与大样本步进法评估结果0.99998基本一致。

    Abstract:

    To assess the reliability of initiating devices accurately with small samples,the influence of up-down test on the scale parameter was studied. The experiment scheme was designed with coefficient of variation. Based on the up-down test data,the revised method of the scale parameter was given. The results of simulation calculation show that the revised parameter has better statistical characteristics and related to the test itself little. The reliability assessment method for initiating devices with small samples based on the bootstrap was proposed,and the estimation of the scale parameter was revised,with that the accuracy of assessment was proved by simulation calculation and test. The method was used to assess the reliability of one initiating device,with γ=0.90 and R≥0.999,the result is that the lower limit reliability is 0.99997,similar to 0.99998 got by the run-down method.

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温玉全,洪东跑.基于Bootstrap方法的火工品可靠性评估[J].含能材料, 2008, 16(5):535-538.
WEN Yu-quan, HONG Dong-pao. Reliability Assessment for Initiating Devices Based on Bootstrap[J]. Chinese Journal of Energetic Materials, 2008, 16(5):535-538.

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  • 收稿日期: 2008-04-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2011-05-06
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